ANALISIS KEAKURATAN VALUASI SAHAM PERBANKAN DI BEI SEBELUM DAN SESUDAH COVID-19

Limbong, Walosniroha Himawan (2024) ANALISIS KEAKURATAN VALUASI SAHAM PERBANKAN DI BEI SEBELUM DAN SESUDAH COVID-19. Masters thesis, Universitas Tarumanagara.

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Abstract

Penelitian ini menyelidiki akurasi berbagai metode valuasi dalam menilai nilai
intrinsik saham perbankan di Indonesia. Studi ini dimulai dengan populasi 50
perusahaan dengan kapitalisasi pasar terbesar, dengan fokus khusus pada enam bank
konvensional (non-syariah). Dari sampel tersebut, enam bank dipilih: Bank Central
Asia Tbk. (BBCA), PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. (BBRI), Bank Mandiri
(Persero) Tbk. (BMRI), PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. (BBNI), Bank
Mega Tbk. (MEGA), dan Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk. (BNGA). Untuk menentukan nilai
intrinsik bank-bank ini, penelitian ini menggunakan metodologi kuantitatif
berdasarkan laporan keuangan lima bank konvensional utama selama periode sebelum
dan sesudah COVID-19 (2017-2019 dan 2021-2023). Studi ini menggunakan tiga
metode valuasi utama: pendekatan Neraca menggunakan rasio Price to Book Value
(PBV); pendekatan Laporan Laba Rugi menggunakan Earnings per Share (EPS) dan
rumus Benjamin Graham; dan pendekatan Arus Kas menggunakan analisis Discounted
Cash Flow (DCF). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pendekatan Laporan Laba
Rugi secara konsisten melebih-lebihkan nilai intrinsik saham bank, sedangkan
pendekatan Neraca dan Arus Kas cenderung meremehkannya. Secara khusus,
pendekatan Neraca—terutama untuk BNGA, diikuti oleh BBNI dan BMRI—
menunjukkan tingkat akurasi tertinggi dalam mencerminkan harga pasar aktual.
Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa pendekatan Neraca dapat menjadi metode paling
andal untuk menilai saham bank di pasar Indonesia. Penelitian ini diharapkan dapat
menjadi referensi berharga bagi investor dan analis keuangan, khususnya di sektor
perbankan, dalam menilai nilai intrinsik saham.
Kata Kunci: nilai intrinsik, valuasi saham, discounted cash flow, price to book value,
earnings per share, keakuratan metode valuasi

This research investigates the accuracy of various valuation methods for assessing the
intrinsic value of Indonesian bank stocks. The study begins with population of top 50largest market capitalization companies, focusing specifically on six conventional(non-sharia) banks. From this sample, six banks were selected: Bank Central Asia Tbk.(BBCA), PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. (BBRI), Bank Mandiri (Persero)Tbk. (BMRI), PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. (BBNI), Bank Mega Tbk.(MEGA), and Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk (BNGA). To determine the intrinsic value of these
banks, this research employs a quantitative methodology based on the financial
statements of the five major conventional banks during both the pre- and post-COVID-
19 periods (2017-2019 and 2021-2023). The study utilizes three key valuation
methods: The Balance Sheet approach using the Price to Book Value (PBV) ratio; The
Income Statement approach using Earnings per Share (EPS) and the Benjamin
Graham Formula, and; The Cash Flow approach using Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
analysis. The results reveal that the Income Statement approach consistently
overestimates the intrinsic value of bank stocks, whereas both the Balance Sheet and
Cash Flow approaches tend to undervalue them. Notably, the Balance Sheet
approach—especially for BNGA, follows by BBNI and BMRI—demonstrates the
highest accuracy in aligning with actual market prices. These findings suggest that the
Balance Sheet approach could be the most reliable method for valuing bank stocks in
the Indonesian market. This research is expected to serve as a valuable reference for
investors and financial analysts, particularly in the banking sector, when assessing the
intrinsic value of stocks.
Keywords: intrinsic value, stock valuation, discounted cash flow, price to book value,
earnings per share, accuracy of valuation method

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Subjects:	Skripsi/Tugas Akhir Skripsi/Tugas Akhir > Fakultas Ekonomi
Divisions:	Fakultas Ekonomi > Akuntansi
Depositing User:	FE Perpus
Date Deposited:	16 May 2025 03:56
Last Modified:	16 May 2025 03:56
URI:	https://repotest.untar.ac.id/id/eprint/46842

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